Coronavirus Outbreak Viral in Iran and South Korea

Today China admits the novel coronavirus hasn’t peaked and some alarming news out of Iran.

Iran reports 4 deaths and up to at least 18 cases, with spread in several cities notably: Qom, Tehran, Babol, Arak, Isfahan, Rasht and other cities. This is basically what we are seeing in South Korea as well with mass infections related to explosive clusters around church groups.

With 4 fatalities in Iran, this means it must have widespread penetration there without any containment, with poorer than average screening. 4 deaths suggests at least 200 actual infections if we take the mortality rate of Covid-19 to heart.

This is not an epidemic, this is a pandemic. We know that with the Princess Diamond failed quarantine, Tokyo is under high-risk for a lack of containment. Asia and the Middle East are two continents, which means the outbreak has reached pandemic levels of infection.

You can have travel bans on China, but can you also have travel bans on South Korea, Japan and Iran, among others simultaneously? Is social distancing really effective? We have to alter our perception of what we are dealing with. February 21st is a new recognition of an outbreak in other countries for Covid-19, after China pretending cases were going down.

Japan’s situation may be much more serious than what we are seeing in Iran, but South Korea’s spread appears much faster, but that’s likely due to better screening.

China’s cases in the Hubei Province has also penetrated its prison system. People from Lebanon and Canada who were in Iran have been tested positive. The WHO says the window of opportunity might be closing. The outbreak outside of China are not linked to Wuhan.

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